Statistical analysis plan for the ‘Efficacy of Nitric Oxide in Stroke’ (ENOS) trial

High blood pressure is common during the acute phase of stroke and is associated with a poor outcome. However, the management of high blood pressure remains unclear. The ‘Efficacy of Nitric Oxide in Stroke’ trial tested whether transdermal glyceryl trinitrate, a nitric oxide donor that lowers blood pressure, is safe and effective in improving outcome after acute stroke. Efficacy of Nitric Oxide in Stroke is an international multicenter, prospective, randomized, single-blind, blinded endpoint trial, with funding from the UK Medical Research Council. Patients with acute ischemic stroke or intracerebral hemorrhage and systolic blood pressure 140–220 mmHg were randomized to glyceryl trinitrate or no glyceryl trinitrate and, where relevant, to continue or stop prestrike antihypertensive therapy. The primary outcome is shift in modified Rankin Scale at three-months. Patients or relatives gave written informed (proxy) consent, and all sites had research ethics approval. Analyses will be done by intention to treat. This paper and attachment describe the trial’s statistical analysis plan, developed prior to unblinding of date. The statistical analysis plan contains design and methods for analyses, and unpopulated tables and figures for the two primary publications and some secondary publications. The database will be locked in late February 2014 in preparation for presentation of the results in May 2014. The data from the trial will improve the precision of the estimates of the overall treatment effects (efficacy and safety) of results from completed trials of blood pressure management in acute stroke, and provide the first large-scale randomized evidence on transdermal glyceryl trinitrate, and of continuing (vs. stopping) prestroke antihypertensive medications, in acute stroke

Publication Bias in Reports of Animal Stroke Studies Leads to Major Overstatement of Efficacy

Publication bias confounds attempts to use systematic reviews to assess the efficacy of various interventions tested in experiments modelling acute ischaemic stroke, leading to a 30% overstatement of efficacy of interventions tested in animals

An improvement of the Berry--Esseen inequality with applications to Poisson and mixed Poisson random sums

By a modification of the method that was applied in (Korolev and Shevtsova, 2009), here the inequalities $$\rho(F_n,\Phi)\le\frac{0.335789(\beta^3+0.425)}{\sqrt{n}}$$ and $$\rho(F_n,\Phi)\le \frac{0.3051(\beta^3+1)}{\sqrt{n}}$$ are proved for the uniform distance $\rho(F_n,\Phi)$ between the standard normal distribution function $\Phi$ and the distribution function $F_n$ of the normalized sum of an arbitrary number $n\ge1$ of independent identically distributed random variables with zero mean, unit variance and finite third absolute moment $\beta^3$. The first of these inequalities sharpens the best known version of the classical Berry--Esseen inequality since $0.335789(\beta^3+0.425)\le0.335789(1+0.425)\beta^3<0.4785\beta^3$ by virtue of the condition $\beta^3\ge1$, and 0.4785 is the best known upper estimate of the absolute constant in the classical Berry--Esseen inequality. The second inequality is applied to lowering the upper estimate of the absolute constant in the analog of the Berry--Esseen inequality for Poisson random sums to 0.3051 which is strictly less than the least possible value of the absolute constant in the classical Berry--Esseen inequality. As a corollary, the estimates of the rate of convergence in limit theorems for compound mixed Poisson distributions are refined.Comment: 33 page

'Drowning in here in his bloody sea' : exploring TV cop drama's representations of the impact of stress in modern policing

The Criminal Justice System is a part of society that is both familiar and hidden. It is familiar in that a large part of daily news and television drama is devoted to it (Carrabine, 2008; Jewkes, 2011). It is hidden in the sense that the majority of the population have little, if any, direct contact with the Criminal Justice System, meaning that the media may be a major force in shaping their views on crime and policing (Carrabine, 2008). As Reiner (2000) notes, the debate about the relationship between the media, policing, and crime has been a key feature of wider societal concerns about crime since the establishment of the modern police force. He outlines the recurring themes in post-war debates in this field. For Conservatives there has been an ongoing concern that the media is criminongenic, as it serves to undermine traditional institutions, including the police. From the viewpoint of radical criminology, the impact of the media is two-fold: it exaggerates legitimate concerns about crime and emphasises the bureaucratic and other restrictions under which the police operate (Reiner, 2000). This is seen as undermining due process and legitimatising what can be termed a ‘maverick’ approach to policing. An early example of this can be seen in Clint Eastwood’s Dirty Harry movies (Siegel, 1971) where Harry Callaghan acts as a one-man law enforcement system outside of the formal legal process, a process portrayed as corrupt, inefficient, and concerned with offenders’ rights rather than protecting victims. From a policing perspective, Reiner (2000) argues that film and TV drama creates a simplistic narrative of crime solving that is almost completely divorced from the reality of modern police work, a finding consistent with more recent work by Cummins et al., (2014)

Bayesian inference for transportation origin-destination matrices: the Poisson-inverse Gaussian and other Poisson mixtures

Transportation origin–destination analysis is investigated through the use of Poisson mixtures by introducing covariate‐based models which incorporate different transport modelling phases and also allow for direct probabilistic inference on link traffic based on Bayesian predictions. Emphasis is placed on the Poisson–inverse Gaussian model as an alternative to the commonly used Poisson–gamma and Poisson–log‐normal models. We present a first full Bayesian formulation and demonstrate that the Poisson–inverse Gaussian model is particularly suited for origin–destination analysis because of its desirable marginal and hierarchical properties. In addition, the integrated nested Laplace approximation is considered as an alternative to Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling and the two methodologies are compared under specific modelling assumptions. The case‐study is based on 2001 Belgian census data and focuses on a large, sparsely distributed origin–destination matrix containing trip information for 308 Flemish municipalities

Therapeutic potential of transdermal glyceryl trinitrate in the management of acute stroke

The nitric oxide donor, glyceryl trinitrate (GTN), is a candidate treatment for the management of acute stroke with haemodynamic and potential reperfusion and neuroprotective effects. When administered as a transdermal patch during the acute and subacute phases after stroke, GTN was safe, lowered blood pressure, maintained cerebral blood flow, and did not induce cerebral steal or alter functional outcome. However, when given within 6 h of stroke onset, GTN reduced death and dependency (odds ratio 0.52; 95% confidence interval 0.34–0.78), death, disability, cognitive impairment and mood disturbance, and improved quality of life (data from two trials, n = 312). In a pooled analysis of four studies (n = 186), GTN reduced between-visit systolic blood pressure variability over days 1–7 compared with no GTN (mean difference -2.09; 95% confidence interval -3.83 to -0.35; p = 0.019). The efficacy of GTN given in the ultra-acute/pre-hospital setting is currently being assessed and, if found to be beneficial, the implications for hyperacute stroke practice are significant. Here, we discuss the evidence to date, potential mechanisms of action and future possibilities, including unanswered questions, for the therapeutic potential of GTN in acute stroke

Statistical analysis plan for the ‘Triple Antiplatelets for Reducing Dependency after Ischaemic Stroke’ (TARDIS) trial

Rationale: Antiplatelet agents such as aspirin, clopidogrel and dipyridamole are effective in reducing the risk of recurrence after a stroke. Importantly, the risk of recurrence is highest immediately after the index event while antiplatelets cause bleeding. Aims and/or hypothesis: The ‘Triple Antiplatelets for Reducing Dependency after Ischaemic Stroke’ (TARDIS) trial is testing whether short-term intensive antiplatelet therapy is safe and effective in reducing the early risk of recurrence as compared with standard guideline-based therapy. Design: TARDIS is an international multi-center prospective randomized open-label blinded–end-point trial, with funding from the UK Health Technology Assessment program. Patients with acute ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack are randomized within 48 h to intensive/triple antiplatelet therapy or guideline antiplatelets taken for one-month. Patients or relatives give written informed (proxy) consent and all sites have research ethics approval. Analyses will be done by intention-to-treat. Study Outcome: The primary outcome is shift in stroke recurrent events and their severity, assessed using the modified Rankin Scale, at three-months. Discussion: This paper and attachment describe the trial’s statistical analysis plan, as developed from the protocol during recruitment and prior to unblinding of data. The statistical analysis plan contains design and methods for analyses, and unpopulated tables and figures for the primary and baseline publications. The data from the trial will provide the first large-scale randomized evidence for the use of intensive antiplatelet therapy for preventing recurrence after acute stroke and transient ischemic attack

Can Animal Models of Disease Reliably Inform Human Studies?

H. Bart van der Worp and colleagues discuss the controversies and possibilities of translating the results of animal experiments into human clinical trials